Seçim 2023: Turkey's Presidential and Parliamentary Elections
Turkey is heading to a crucial election on May 14, 2023, that will determine its political future for the next five years. The election will be held under a new presidential system that was adopted in 2017 and implemented in 2018, giving sweeping powers to the president as both head of state and government. The election will also renew the 600-seat parliament, which shares legislative authority with the president.
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The main contenders in the presidential race are incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdoğan from the Justice and Development Party (AKP), who is seeking his third term in office, and Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu from the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), who is challenging Erdoğan for the second time. Both candidates have formed electoral alliances with smaller parties to boost their chances of winning. Erdoğan's People Alliance includes the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and two minor parties, while Kılıçdaroğlu's Nation Alliance includes the İYİ Party, the Greens and Left Future Party, and two minor parties. Other candidates include Ümit Özdağ from the newly formed Zafer Party, Erkan Baş from the Workers' Party of Turkey, Mustafa Destici from the Great Unity Party, Meral Akşener from İYİ Party (running as an independent), Çiğdem Kılıçgün Uçar from Yeşiller ve Sol Gelecek Partisi (running as an independent), İbrahim Akın from Yeniden Refah Partisi (running as an independent), Fatih Erbakan from Yeniden Refah Partisi (running as an independent), and Selahattin Demirtaş from Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) (running from prison).
The main issues and challenges facing Turkey in this election are manifold. They include managing the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic fallout, restoring trust in democratic institutions and human rights, improving relations with neighboring countries and allies, resolving regional conflicts and security threats, addressing social polarization and cultural diversity, and ensuring a fair and free electoral process.
The Electoral System
Turkey has a two-round presidential election system. In the first round, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, a second round is held between the top two candidates two weeks later. The president is elected for a term of five years and can serve for a maximum of two terms.
Elections for the 600 members of parliament are carried out through a system of proportional representation, so voters vote for party lists rather than candidates. The parliament is divided into 87 electoral districts that elect different numbers of MPs depending on their population. To enter parliament, a party needs to get 7% of the vote nationwide or be part of an alliance that does. Candidates must be at least 18 years old. To obtain a parliamentary majority, a party or alliance must hold more than Continuing the article: 300 seats. The president can dissolve parliament and call for early elections, and parliament can also call for early presidential and parliamentary elections with a three-fifths majority vote.
The electoral system has been criticized by some opposition parties and civil society groups for being unfair and undemocratic. They argue that the 7% threshold is too high and excludes many parties from representation, that the electoral districts are not equally distributed and favor rural areas over urban ones, that the presidential system concentrates too much power in one person and undermines the separation of powers, and that the state media and institutions are biased in favor of the ruling party and alliance.
The Opinion Polls
The opinion polls show a tight race between Erdoğan and Kılıçdaroğlu, with neither of them likely to win in the first round. According to the latest average of polls by Konda, a reputable polling company, Erdoğan has 41.6% of the vote, Kılıçdaroğlu has 38.4%, Akşener has 8.9%, Demirtaş has 5.7%, Özdağ has 2.1%, Baş has 1.5%, Destici has 0.8%, Uçar has 0.6%, Akın has 0.3%, Erbakan has 0.2%, and undecided voters make up 9.9%. In a possible second round, Konda predicts that Kılıçdaroğlu would win with 51.4% against Erdoğan's 48.6%.
However, the polls are not very reliable and can change depending on various factors, such as voter turnout, campaign strategies, media coverage, economic conditions, security incidents, and external events. The polls also have different methodologies and margins of error, and some of them may be influenced by political or ideological biases. Therefore, the polls should be taken with a grain of salt and not be seen as definitive indicators of the outcome.
The possible scenarios and outcomes of the election are diverse and uncertain. Some of them are:
Erdoğan wins in the first round with more than 50% of the vote, securing his third term as president and maintaining his dominance over Turkish politics.
Kılıçdaroğlu wins in the second round with a narrow margin, ending Erdoğan's rule and ushering in a new era of political change and reform.
Akşener surprises everyone and makes it to the second round, challenging Erdoğan or Kılıçdaroğlu with her nationalist and conservative appeal.
Demirtaş mobilizes the Kurdish vote and surpasses the 7% threshold, giving his party a significant presence in parliament and a potential kingmaker role.
Özdağ or Baş attract enough votes from the dissatisfied segments of society to create a new political force or spoil the chances of other candidates.
Destici, Uçar, Akın, or Erbakan manage to get some votes from their niche constituencies but fail to make any significant impact on the overall result.
The Current Issues
Turkey is facing many challenges and problems in its domestic and foreign affairs that will shape the agenda and discourse of the election campaign. Some of the most important ones are:
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COVID-19 Pandemic
Turkey has been hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic, which has claimed more than 100,000 lives and infected more than 7 million people in the country as of June 2023. The government has imposed various measures to contain the spread of the virus, such as lockdowns, curfews, travel bans, mask mandates, social distancing rules, and vaccination campaigns. However, these measures have also caused economic hardship, social discontent, public health issues, and educational disruptions for millions of people.
The government's handling of the pandemic has been criticized by some opposition parties, health experts, media outlets, and civil society organizations for being inconsistent, ineffective, opaque, politicized, and authoritarian. They accuse the government of hiding or manipulating data, mismanaging resources, violating human rights, silencing dissenting voices, favoring cronies or allies over others, Continuing the article: and failing to cooperate with the international community. They also demand more transparency, accountability, participation, solidarity, and scientific guidance in the pandemic response.
Foreign Relations
Turkey has been involved in several conflicts and disputes with its neighbors and allies in recent years, affecting its regional and global role and reputation. Some of the most prominent ones are:
The Syrian civil war, where Turkey has supported some rebel groups against the Assad regime and its allies, Russia and Iran, and has launched military operations against the Kurdish forces in northern Syria, who are backed by the US and the EU.
The Libyan civil war, where Turkey has intervened militarily and diplomatically to support the UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) against the rival Libyan National Army (LNA) led by Khalifa Haftar, who is supported by Egypt, the UAE, France, and Russia.
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, where Turkey has provided political and military support to Azerbaijan in its war against Armenia over the disputed territory, which ended with a Russian-brokered ceasefire agreement that favored Azerbaijan.
The Eastern Mediterranean dispute, where Turkey has clashed with Greece and Cyprus over the exploration and exploitation of natural gas resources in the region, as well as the delimitation of maritime boundaries and exclusive economic zones.
The EU accession process, where Turkey's negotiations to join the bloc have stalled due to various political and economic obstacles, such as the Cyprus issue, the rule of law and human rights concerns, the migration crisis, the visa liberalization deal, and the customs union update.
The NATO alliance, where Turkey's relations with its fellow members have deteriorated due to its purchase of the Russian S-400 missile defense system, which triggered US sanctions and jeopardized Turkey's participation in the F-35 fighter jet program.
Turkey's foreign policy has been characterized by some analysts as assertive, pragmatic, independent, and multidimensional, while others have described it as aggressive, erratic, isolated, and revisionist. The government has defended its actions as necessary to protect Turkey's national interests, sovereignty, and security, while also seeking dialogue and cooperation with other actors. The opposition has criticized the government for pursuing a reckless, adventurist, and confrontational foreign policy that has alienated Turkey from its friends and partners, and has called for a more balanced, rational, and constructive approach that respects international law and norms.
Human Rights and Democracy
Turkey has faced growing criticism and pressure from various domestic and international actors for its record on human rights and democracy. Some of the main issues and violations that have been reported are:
The crackdown on dissent and opposition after the failed coup attempt in 2016, which resulted in the arrest or dismissal of thousands of people from various sectors of society, such as journalists, academics, lawyers, judges, teachers, civil servants, politicians, Continuing the article: activists, and human rights defenders, on charges of terrorism, coup involvement, or insulting the president.
The erosion of the rule of law and judicial independence, as the government has exerted more control and influence over the judiciary, the constitutional court, the bar associations, and the council of judges and prosecutors, undermining the separation of powers and the checks and balances in the system.
The restriction of freedom of expression and information, as the government has censored or shut down various media outlets, websites, social media platforms, and NGOs, and has prosecuted or harassed journalists, writers, artists, academics, and citizens for expressing their opinions or reporting on sensitive issues.
The violation of minority rights and cultural diversity, as the government has discriminated against or oppressed various ethnic, religious, linguistic, or sexual groups in Turkey, such as the Kurds, the Alevis, the Armenians, the Greeks, the Jews, the Yazidis, the LGBTI+ community, and others.
The deterioration of women's rights and gender equality, as the government has withdrawn from the Istanbul Convention on preventing and combating violence against women and domestic violence, has proposed changes to the civil code that would undermine women's rights in marriage and divorce, has failed to protect women from domestic violence and femicide, and has promoted a conservative and patriarchal view of women's roles in society.
The government has denied or dismissed these allegations as unfounded, exaggerated, or politically motivated. It has claimed that it is acting within its sovereign rights and in accordance with its national laws and values. It has also accused some foreign governments and organizations of interfering in Turkey's internal affairs or supporting terrorist groups against Turkey. The opposition has demanded that the government respect human rights and democracy as universal values and as obligations under international treaties. It has also urged the government to engage in dialogue and cooperation with civil society and international institutions to address these issues and improve Turkey's image and reputation.
Conclusion
The 2023 elections are a critical juncture for Turkey's political future. They will determine whether Erdoğan will continue his rule for another term or whether a new leader will emerge to challenge him. They will also shape Turkey's economic recovery from the pandemic, its foreign policy orientation in a turbulent region and world, its democratic development and human rights situation, and its social cohesion and cultural diversity.
The expectations and hopes of the Turkish people are high but also diverse. Some people hope for stability, continuity, and security under Erdoğan's leadership. Some people hope for change, reform, and democracy under Kılıçdaroğlu's leadership. Some people hope for alternative options or voices from other candidates or parties. Some people hope for a peaceful and fair electoral process that reflects their will.
The challenges and opportunities for Turkey are also immense. Turkey faces many internal and external problems that require effective solutions. Turkey also has many potentials and resources that can be utilized for its benefit. Turkey needs a visionary leader who can unite the country around a common vision and a common interest. Turkey also needs a participatory democracy that can empower its citizens to have a say in their destiny.
FAQs
Q: When will the results be announced?
A: The results will be announced by the Supreme Electoral Council (YSK) after verifying all the ballots from all the polling stations across the country. The YSK is expected to announce the final results within 10 days after the election day. However, preliminary results may be available earlier from unofficial sources such as media outlets or polling agencies.
Q: How can Turkish citizens abroad vote?
A: Turkish citizens who live abroad can vote at designated polling stations in their countries of residence. They need to register online at the YSK website before April 14, 2023. They can then vote between May 6-9 at diplomatic missions or between May 11-14 at customs gates. They can only vote for the presidential election, not for the parliamentary election.
Q: How will the elections affect Turkey's EU accession process?
A: Turkey's EU accession process has been stalled for years due to various political and economic obstacles on both sides. The elections may have an impact on this process depending on their outcome. If Erdoğan wins, Continuing the article: the EU accession process may remain frozen or even deteriorate further, as Erdoğan has often clashed with the EU over various issues and has expressed his frustration and disillusionment with the bloc. If Kılıçdaroğlu wins, the EU accession process may be revived or improved, as Kılıçdaroğlu has pledged to restore Turkey's relations with the EU and to pursue reforms that would align Turkey with the EU standards and criteria.
Q: How will the elections affect Turkey's relations with Russia, Iran, and the US?
A: Turkey's relations with Russia, Iran, and the US are complex and dynamic, involving both cooperation and competition on various issues. The elections may have an impact on these relations depending on their outcome. If Erdoğan wins, Turkey may continue to pursue a pragmatic and independent foreign policy that balances its interests and relations with these powers, while also seeking to avoid direct confrontation or escalation. If Kılıçdaroğlu wins, Turkey may adopt a more pro-Western and pro-NATO foreign policy that aligns its interests and relations with the US and the EU, while also seeking to maintain dialogue and cooperation with Russia and Iran.
Q: How will the elections affect Turkey's role in Syria, Libya, and Nagorno-Karabakh?
A: Turkey has played an active and influential role in these conflicts, supporting different actors and interests in each case. The elections may have an impact on Turkey's role in these conflicts depending on their outcome. If Erdoğan wins, Turkey may continue to assert its role and interests in these conflicts, while also seeking to consolidate its gains and secure its influence. If Kılıçdaroğlu wins, Turkey may adopt a more conciliatory and diplomatic role in these conflicts, while also seeking to resolve them through peaceful means and multilateral mechanisms. 44f88ac181
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